Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x01d9…acd0
weather · 818 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,240 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,343 · open −$103
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,625
Realized+$1,343
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses678 / 8
Open positions132
Markets (closed)686 / 818
History coverage8d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day361.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 132 History 686 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$1,345
14 days+$1,343
30 days+$1,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 94¢ 92¢ $144 $140 −$4 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $106 $109 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $102 $105 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $99 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $93 $97 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $90 $94 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 97¢ 95¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? No 98¢ 95¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $103 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $104 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $51 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $69 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $157 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $11 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $13 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $13 53m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $16 55m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $40 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 680 +6.8% -3.4% 99% 4% -5.7%
≤30d 686 +6.8% -3.4% 99% 4% -5.7%
≤90d 686 +6.8% -3.4% 99% 4% -5.7%
all 686 +6.8% -3.4% 99% 4% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover361.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 4% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -14.7%
15% -21.1% 3% -23.0%
20% -28.8% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,624.71 · official $5,625.89 (match) · 3500 history records