Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x01d7…5fd2 other 1528 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,815 (-4%) realized −$23,834 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%1219W / 308L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$606est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$6,991
sports 37% −$3,040
world 1% +$206
crypto 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.7% -7.1% 79% 40% -11.0%
≤30d 216 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 45% -13.8%
≤90d 966 -0.1% -9.7% 78% 41% -10.7%
all 1527 -0.8% -10.3% 80% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 37% -10.9%
10% -18.9% 10% -19.4%
15% -26.7% 3% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$184 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$23,834
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1219 / 308
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$606
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1527 / 1528
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$431
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 96¢ $500 $519 +$19 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $201 +$8 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$28 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $803 +$127 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $564 −$275 -49%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $502 +$57 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $301 +$21 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,001 +$62 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $291 +$39 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $201 +$40 +20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $200 +$10 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $705 −$64 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $440 −$220 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $502 +$26 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $703 −$201 -29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $708 −$17 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $803 −$207 -26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $663 −$24 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $503 +$122 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$92 -92%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 +$13 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $705 +$203 +29%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $701 +$28 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $701 +$38 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $553 +$134 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $905 −$338 -37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $601 +$43 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$46 +23%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $801 +$43 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $602 +$58 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $201 +$34 +17%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $300 +$15 +5%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $702 +$75 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $50 +$7 +14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $200 +$8 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $401 −$331 -83%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $401 +$35 +9%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $201 +$3 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $200 +$15 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $151 −$5 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $31 5m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $30 26m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $501 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 95¢ $209 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 91¢ $201 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $501 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $930 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $803 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 12¢ $29 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 19¢ $14 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 49¢ $162 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $246 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $100 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $301 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $502 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $1,001 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $291 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $201 40h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $210 41h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $200 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $201 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $220 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $440 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $416 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $504 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $528 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $502 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 63¢ $501 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $703 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.02 · official $519.02 (match) · 3500 history records