Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x01d4…47a7 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,798 (-71%) realized −$1,801 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$51
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,795
politics 8% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +99.3% +80.3% 75% 75% +43.7%
≤30d 19 +25.9% +13.9% 47% 47% +7.7%
≤90d 19 +25.9% +13.9% 47% 47% +7.7%
all 21 +24.0% +12.2% 48% 48% -80.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 48% -80.7%
10% +1.5% 48% -82.6%
15% -8.3% 48% -84.3%
20% -17.3% 38% -85.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late +117% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$186 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$1,801
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage97d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $212 $212 −$0 (-0%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 81¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$4 +203%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +186%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$6 +400%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $4 +$7 +163%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $4 +$11 +249%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $43 +$16 +38%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +113%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Suns (-9.5) Mar 13 $160 +$180 +113%
Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5 Mar 12 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 23h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 49¢ $4 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ $3 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 7d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $1 9d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 33¢ $2 10d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 20¢ $2 11d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 13d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 72¢ $16 14d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 16d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 17d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 25¢ $2 18d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $19 21d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $24 21d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 27¢ $2 26d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 27d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 27d
Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,002 96d
Spread: Suns (-9.5) BUY Suns 47¢ $160 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.58 · official $234.35 (match) · 64 history records