Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01d1…700d politics 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$19
other 26% −$23
sports 17% −$15
crypto 8% $0
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$3
culture 3% −$3
finance 2% +$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 56 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 101 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.8%
all 130 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 101
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage107d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $596 −$2 -0%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $116 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $311 −$4 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $167 −$3 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $327 −$2 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $193 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $147 −$2 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $12 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $523 −$3 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $79 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $43 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $123 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $149 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $65 9h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 10h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 17h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $48 17h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $48 23h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $56 24h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 28h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 29h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 36h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $51 36h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $51 44h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $9 45h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $9 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.05 · official $53.05 (match) · 548 history records