Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ce…27a2 weather 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,606 (+15%) realized +$9,653 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%119W / 165L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$4,651
crypto 3% −$125
other 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -43.5% -48.9% 26% 18% -19.7%
≤30d 183 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 27% -5.6%
≤90d 284 -4.7% -13.7% 42% 28% -3.0%
all 284 -4.7% -13.7% 42% 28% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 28% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 23% -12.3%
15% -29.5% 18% -20.8%
20% -36.4% 14% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$79 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$9,653
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses119 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)284 / 287
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $31 $7 −$25 (-79%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$88 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $352 −$121 -34%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $366 +$41 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $134 +$465 +347%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $648 +$150 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $154 −$31 -20%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $244 −$82 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $629 −$116 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1,330 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $922 +$245 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $219 −$27 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $112 +$18 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $760 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $532 +$350 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$5 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $359 +$236 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $599 −$598 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$8 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $69 −$66 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $794 +$255 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18? Jun 12 $102 −$59 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 12 $146 −$119 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? Jun 12 $246 −$95 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 12 $186 −$129 -69%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $231 −$216 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$5 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23? Jun 12 $250 −$123 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 14? Jun 12 $109 −$82 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? Jun 12 $106 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 12 $208 −$193 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 12 $253 −$180 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21? Jun 12 $353 −$314 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 33m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 58m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 67¢ $134 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.89 · official $9.89 (match) · 3500 history records