Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
01 0x01cc…9e42 other 14 markets active 3d ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$6
world 27% $0
politics 12% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 12% -1.2%
all 8 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 12% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 12% -1.2%
10% -9.6% 12% -10.6%
15% -18.4% 12% -19.2%
20% -26.4% 12% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×9.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.45 per $1 lost it wins $7.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage89d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? No 83¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 10¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? May 25 $12 $0 -1%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Apr 17 $2 $0 -23%
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Apr 11 $2 $0 -18%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 20 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $6 3d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 10d
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 13d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 20d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $11 22d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 23d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 23d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 23d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 23d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $11 25d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 25d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 25d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $8 25d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $7 50d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $7 50d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 52d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $7 52d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $7 54d
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 58d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 58d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $7 60d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 60d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 62d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 62d
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 66d
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.43 · official $34.43 (match) · 39 history records