Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01cb…b1f8 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1
world 35% +$1
sports 13% +$2
politics 11% −$3
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 48 +1.7% -8.0% 42% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 6% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage482d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $98 +$6 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $68 −$4 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $32 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $5 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $601 +$2 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $244 −$4 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 08 $13 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 08 $3 $0 -15%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $1 $0 +44%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $15 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 19 $16 $0 +3%
Northeastern vs. Monmouth Mar 04 $8 +$9 +108%
North Alabama vs. Central Arkansas Feb 24 $26 −$19 -70%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Portland vs. St. Mary's Feb 20 $12 +$12 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $36 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $25 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $11 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $19 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.97 · official $19.98 (match) · 193 history records