Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x01ca…038c world 511 markets active 0h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,020 (-1%) realized −$1,048 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%358W / 99L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$31
14 days+$257
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1,675
politics 25% +$299
other 24% −$1,694
crypto 6% +$2,579
tech 5% −$269
economics 3% −$109
finance 1% +$20
culture 0% +$11
weather 0% −$99
sports 0% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.3% -15.2% 88% 17% -11.1%
≤30d 72 +3.1% -6.7% 85% 25% -6.3%
≤90d 114 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 25% -8.7%
all 457 +2.3% -7.5% 78% 24% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 24% -10.6%
10% -16.3% 10% -19.2%
15% -24.4% 5% -27.0%
20% -31.8% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$95 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$2,984
Realized−$1,048
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses358 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)457 / 511
History coverage398d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 96¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 94¢ $91 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 91¢ 94¢ $91 $94 +$2 (+3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 98¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 87¢ 96¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $97 +$3 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $805 +$16 +2%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 14 $3,023 −$3 -0%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$4 -12%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $118 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $134 +$7 +5%
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 14 $43 −$2 -5%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 14 $170 +$10 +6%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $638 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $78 +$12 +15%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $172 +$25 +15%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $168 +$30 +18%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $39 +$10 +26%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 14 $174 +$44 +25%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $71 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $638 +$110 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 +$5 +14%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 14 $56 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $240 +$8 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $229 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $312 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $7 4m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $50 22m
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA W BUY No 96¢ $48 2h
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47 2h
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $46 2h
Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $42 2h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $41 2h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $38 2h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $35 2h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $34 2h
Will Panama reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Qatar reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Jordan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Iraq reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $44 2h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $94 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $96 2d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $97 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $49 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,984.08 · official $2,983.76 (match) · 1853 history records