Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01c9…4386 sports 809 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,473 (-7%) realized −$24,461 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%342W / 466L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$2,072est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,135
7 days+$1,074
14 days+$1,074
30 days+$1,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$9,072
other 31% −$5,011
world 1% −$589
crypto 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +22.5% +10.8% 44% 44% +1.6%
≤30d 37 +19.2% +7.8% 43% 43% +1.5%
≤90d 367 +4.9% -5.1% 39% 37% -17.1%
all 808 +0.4% -9.2% 42% 40% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 40% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 37% -21.8%
15% -25.8% 33% -29.3%
20% -33.1% 26% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$189 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$24,461
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses342 / 466
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,072
Open positions1
Markets (closed)808 / 809
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$408
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $132 $119 −$12 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $252 −$117 -47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $282 −$30 -10%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $207 +$164 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $573 −$219 -38%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $167 −$36 -22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $314 −$294 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$56 +55%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$397 +388%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $353 +$275 +78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $200 −$36 -18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $647 +$568 +88%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $202 −$174 -86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $404 +$191 +47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $49 +$139 +281%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $95 −$14 -15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $358 +$232 +65%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $387 +$202 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 −$78 -76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $586 −$120 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $507 +$78 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $582 −$75 -13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $156 −$85 -54%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$77 -76%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $252 +$66 +26%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $359 +$123 +34%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $300 +$193 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$126 +249%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $284 −$284 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $74 +$212 +287%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $557 −$283 -51%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $379 +$10 +3%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $400 −$53 -13%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $1,150 −$991 -86%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $352 −$348 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $125 −$51 -41%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $102 −$38 -37%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $101 +$248 +246%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $100 −$7 -7%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $135 22m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $134 23m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $252 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 34¢ $253 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $129 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $65 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $155 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $207 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $207 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $194 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $95 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $97 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $226 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $97 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $131 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $167 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $147 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $314 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $158 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $154 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $627 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.17 · official $119.17 (match) · 3500 history records