Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x01c7…e995 sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2759 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$940,900 (+313%) realized +$958,379 · open −$17,479
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%208W / 283L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,943per market
Trades / day2759.4pace
Fees−$1,336est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$137,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,627
sports 43% +$26,344
crypto 5% +$3,313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2759 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 33% -47.5%
≤30d 491 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 33% -47.5%
≤90d 491 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 33% -47.5%
all 491 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 33% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2759.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 33% -47.5%
10% -26.4% 29% -52.5%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 27% -57.1%
20% -40.0% 25% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -60% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
33.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$830 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$137,172
Realized+$958,379
Unrealized−$17,479
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses208 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$1,336
Open positions33
Markets (closed)491 / 102
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$2,943
Trades / day2759.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 70¢ 100¢ $20,166 $28,669 +$8,503 (+42%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 83¢ 100¢ $9,694 $11,731 +$2,037 (+21%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 64¢ 70¢ $2,277 $2,516 +$239 (+10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 87¢ 86¢ $2,322 $2,300 −$21 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $1,058 $2,252 +$1,194 (+113%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $1,337 $1,222 −$115 (-9%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 30¢ $947 $760 −$187 (-20%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 42¢ 42¢ $576 $575 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $537 $525 −$12 (-2%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Uruguay 97¢ 97¢ $173 $174 +$1 (+0%)
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Viktoria Morvayova 46¢ 48¢ $153 $158 +$5 (+3%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ 42¢ $143 $145 +$2 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $115 $125 +$10 (+9%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 45¢ 40¢ $74 $67 −$7 (-10%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xinyu Gao 16¢ 18¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 39¢ 38¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 47¢ 50¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+7%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Carole Monnet 40¢ 42¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 44¢ 44¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 35¢ 30¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $8,727 $20 −$8,707 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 36¢ 34¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Martyna Kubka 34¢ 34¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 39¢ 72¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $49 +$67 +138%
Centurion 2: Tuncay Duran vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $27 +$88 +322%
Heilbronn: Daniel Galan vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $51 +$63 +123%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 15 $52 +$59 +113%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 15 $43 +$54 +126%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $35 +$60 +170%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 15 $30 +$51 +170%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 15 $34 +$45 +134%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 15 $31 +$42 +138%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 15 $64 +$7 +11%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 15 $32 +$37 +118%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 15 $32 +$33 +104%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 15 $28 +$30 +108%
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski Jun 15 $19 +$37 +194%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 15 $18 +$37 +199%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 15 $19 +$34 +177%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 15 $22 +$31 +140%
Spread: Northern Ireland (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$21 +71%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 15 $33 +$17 +52%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 15 $16 +$32 +194%
Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Vicenza: Lautaro Midon vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 15 $20 +$24 +117%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 15 $24 +$19 +79%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 15 $17 +$22 +129%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 15 $15 +$25 +170%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $32 +$7 +21%
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$20 +102%
Spread: Andorra (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$31 +417%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 +$4 +10%
Cervia: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 15 $17 +$21 +128%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Birmingham: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 15 $13 +$24 +188%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 15 $15 +$19 +122%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 15 $9 +$25 +288%
Heilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez Jun 15 $13 +$18 +138%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 15 $9 +$22 +257%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 15 $12 +$19 +156%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 15 $28 $0 +2%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 15 $12 +$16 +133%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 15 $11 +$17 +150%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 15 $9 +$19 +212%
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 15 $12 +$15 +130%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 15 $12 +$13 +108%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 15 $8 +$15 +177%
Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$9 +74%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 15 $8 +$13 +161%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $51 4m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $14 4m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $29 4m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $30 4m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $59 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 45¢ $8 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 45¢ $247 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 45¢ $83 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 45¢ $2 7m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $1 7m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $15 10m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $23 10m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 40¢ $3 11m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $1 11m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 14m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $28 14m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $6 16m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 16m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $29 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $16 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $21 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $14 17m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $210 18m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $110 19m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $158 19m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $153 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137,172.28 · official $137,116.77 (match) · 3500 history records