Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
01 0x01c7…89c4 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-0%) realized −$110 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%48W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days+$119
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$98
tech 13% +$150
other 12% −$419
finance 11% +$60
politics 6% +$11
economics 5% +$2
world 5% +$1
sports 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.7% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 20% -5.1%
≤90d 14 -11.2% -19.7% 86% 7% -7.7%
all 53 -4.0% -13.1% 91% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$512) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$105 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$954
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses48 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage248d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $582 $580 −$1 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $372 $374 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $1,611 +$44 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $271 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $288 +$70 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $394 +$4 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $294 +$22 +7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $292 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $282 +$7 +3%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 05 $1,112 +$15 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $1,133 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $633 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $484 +$14 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1,116 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 24 $1,114 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22? Mar 24 $1,112 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $519 +$39 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20? Mar 20 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20? Mar 20 $478 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $440 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 05 $338 +$5 +1%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 05 $171 +$6 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 26 $440 −$30 -7%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Feb 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? Feb 19 $433 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $489 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15? Feb 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15? Feb 14 $388 +$1 +0%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Feb 14 $444 −$444 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 9? Feb 10 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on February 8? Feb 09 $531 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $530 +$1 +0%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 04 $523 +$7 +1%
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 02 $513 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Jan 06 $512 +$1 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $417 +$27 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $361 +$56 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $196 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $357 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? Nov 13 $329 +$24 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $93k November 3-9? Nov 11 $333 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 5? Nov 06 $331 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3? Nov 03 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 3? Nov 03 $310 +$19 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? Nov 03 $336 −$25 -8%
Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on October 30? Nov 02 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 29? Oct 30 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $582 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $24 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $352 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $494 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $272 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $271 9d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $485 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $358 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $398 10d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 84¢ $316 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $394 23d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $394 23d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 77¢ $294 36d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $288 36d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 36d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 99¢ $292 36d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 37d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 37d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $112 38d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 38d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $114 38d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 41d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $257 41d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $289 45d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $282 47d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $284 49d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $958 49d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 50d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $954.47 · official $954.47 (match) · 145 history records