Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
01 0x01c5…704b sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$171 (+3%) realized +$170 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%68W / 35L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$98
14 days+$88
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$134
economics 22% +$15
other 15% +$67
world 2% +$1
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +57.5% +42.5% 53% 40% -0.6%
≤30d 24 +34.4% +21.6% 46% 29% -3.5%
≤90d 38 +23.3% +11.6% 61% 24% -3.8%
all 103 +18.0% +6.8% 66% 34% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 34% -6.4%
10% -3.4% 16% -15.3%
15% -12.8% 9% -23.5%
20% -21.3% 7% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses68 / 35
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 110
History coverage171d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$57 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -68%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$21 +414%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 −$2 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $116 +$23 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $13 −$2 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $34 −$10 -29%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $30 −$2 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $40 −$4 -10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 +$6 +119%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 25 $42 −$4 -10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals May 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $80 +$3 +3%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $12 +$3 +25%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 02 $8 $0 -6%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 31 $20 +$2 +9%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 29 $28 +$2 +9%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 19 $1 +$7 +700%
Spurs vs. Kings Mar 19 $100 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $162 −$6 -4%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 18 $30 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bulls vs. Lakers Mar 13 $86 +$6 +7%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $30 −$2 -7%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $20 −$4 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 14m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $128 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $128 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY $10 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY $10 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY $10 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $198 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 81¢ $111 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.14 · official $78.14 (match) · 283 history records