Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x01c2…8f24 crypto 49 markets active 4d ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+13%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$61
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$65
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.6% -20.0% 59% 53% +1.1%
≤30d 39 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 51% +1.8%
≤90d 39 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 51% +1.8%
all 49 -12.9% -21.2% 53% 47% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 47% -0.5%
10% -28.7% 37% -10.1%
15% -35.6% 18% -18.7%
20% -41.9% 12% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage266d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $76 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Oct 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Oct 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Oct 05 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Oct 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Oct 04 $9 −$3 -32%
GTA 6 launch postponed? Oct 04 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 9AM ET Sep 21 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Sep 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11AM ET Sep 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10AM ET Sep 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records