Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01be…5d96 crypto 936 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-5%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%535W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$87
14 days−$74
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$193
sports 3% −$7
weather 2% −$5
other 0% −$2
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 40% -21.0%
≤30d 460 -6.2% -15.1% 55% 45% -17.4%
≤90d 936 -5.6% -14.5% 57% 44% -16.6%
all 936 -5.6% -14.5% 57% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 44% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 30% -24.6%
15% -30.2% 21% -31.9%
20% -37.0% 14% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses535 / 401
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)936 / 936
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 936 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3077 history records