Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ba…d0b2 crypto 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$682 (+2%) realized +$682 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%205W / 141L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,464
7 days−$1,068
14 days−$629
30 days+$928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 50% -19.1%
≤30d 100 +17.1% +6.0% 58% 58% -4.9%
≤90d 100 +17.1% +6.0% 58% 58% -4.9%
all 346 -6.7% -15.6% 59% 59% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 59% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 21% -17.6%
15% -31.0% 19% -25.6%
20% -37.8% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$76 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$682
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses205 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)346 / 346
History coverage106d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 346 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $174 +$149 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $168 +$155 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$52 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$51 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1,834 −$1,779 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $850 −$820 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $418 −$404 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $896 +$827 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $410 −$396 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $168 −$166 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $133 +$190 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$50 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$23 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$49 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $168 +$155 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $170 +$153 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $404 +$373 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $133 −$127 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$50 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $168 +$155 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1,838 +$1,697 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $883 −$853 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $142 +$131 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $49 +$56 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$63 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$53 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$50 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2513 history records