Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01b9…6e6f sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+8%) realized +$104 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$440
14 days−$274
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$10
other 15% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 47% -20.8%
≤90d 20 +2.0% -7.7% 45% 45% -15.9%
all 23 +15.1% +4.2% 52% 52% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 52% -10.1%
10% -5.8% 52% -18.7%
15% -14.9% 52% -26.6%
20% -23.2% 52% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$57 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage93d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $172 −$170 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $51 +$39 +78%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $51 +$45 +90%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $30 +$34 +115%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Apr 16 $30 +$28 +93%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Apr 16 $30 +$87 +291%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $9 −$2 -22%
Spread: Raptors (-7.5) Mar 19 $20 +$21 +104%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 19 $20 +$21 +104%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) Mar 19 $30 +$30 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $153 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $172 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $51 8d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY Thailand $10 9d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 9d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $51 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 12d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 12d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $102 12d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 87¢ $90 12d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $51 13d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $51 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 19d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $64 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 63d
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) SELL Warriors 100¢ $58 63d
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) BUY Warriors 51¢ $30 64d
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) BUY Magic 50¢ $30 64d
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $30 64d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $40 64d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 64d
Spread: Raptors (-7.5) SELL Raptors 100¢ $41 92d
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) SELL Hawks 100¢ $41 92d
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) SELL Pacers 100¢ $60 92d
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) BUY Hawks 49¢ $20 92d
Spread: Raptors (-7.5) BUY Raptors 49¢ $20 92d
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) BUY Pacers 50¢ $30 92d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.17 · official $138.17 (match) · 136 history records