Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01b7…766a crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,794 (-35%) realized +$1,713 · open −$10,507
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%80W / 103L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$2,250
14 days+$2,250
30 days+$2,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$10,543
other 31% +$2,254
crypto 12% −$117
sports 2% −$9
weather 2% −$289
politics 1% −$193
finance 1% −$193
culture 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 45% +12.7%
≤30d 16 -13.0% -21.3% 50% 38% +11.5%
≤90d 111 -35.3% -41.4% 26% 23% -0.9%
all 183 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 39% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 39% +0.0%
10% -25.6% 36% -9.6%
15% -32.8% 32% -18.3%
20% -39.4% 27% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$26 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$1,713
Unrealized−$10,507
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses80 / 103
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)183 / 186
History coverage101d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ $10,000 $157 −$9,843 (-98%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $90 $108 +$18 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ $700 $18 −$682 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$18 -87%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$14 +75%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$40 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$347 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,000 +$90 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $509 −$196 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,055 +$2,000 +33%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $51 +$21 +41%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $71 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 17 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 17 $13 −$12 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 17 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? May 14 $50 +$213 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 01 $30 −$29 -97%
Yokkaichi: Yasutaka Uchiyama vs Hayato Matsuoka Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Wizards vs. Warriors Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 29 $14 +$21 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$25 +254%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. LSU Tigers (W) Mar 28 $10 +$23 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $50 +$64 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $50 +$32 +64%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 25 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $76 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $32 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $51 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 8h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $3 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 25h
5kt meteor strike in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $111 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $700 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $10,000 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 89¢ $2,090 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $314 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $2,000 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $8,055 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5,046 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 27d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $82 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 29d
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $51 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.96 · official $282.96 (match) · 453 history records