Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01b7…2eca crypto 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$55,598 (+202%) realized +$55,597 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%166W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day208.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$633
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -85.2% -86.6% 4% 3% -73.9%
≤30d 439 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 28% -15.7%
≤90d 439 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 28% -15.7%
all 439 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 28% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 21% -23.7%
15% -45.7% 15% -31.1%
20% -51.0% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$55,597
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses166 / 273
Open positions1
Markets (closed)439 / 313
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day208.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 52¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 32¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records