Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x01b6…fcf3 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2
other 28% +$5
crypto 11% −$1
finance 6% +$1
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 53 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -9.1%
10% -15.8% 4% -17.8%
15% -23.9% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $62 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $65-70m May 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 22 $23 $0 +1%
Will 'Delicious in Dungeon' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70–71°F on May 19? May 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $1 +$3 +188%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 30 $14 −$1 -5%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $16 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $35 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $35 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $34 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $21 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $13 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $15 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $17 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $32 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $15 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $15 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $8 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.01 · official $32.01 (match) · 144 history records