Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x01af…8da9 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% $0
other 37% $0
crypto 10% −$2
economics 10% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage115d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $226 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $111 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $110 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $110 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $112 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 25d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 37d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $112 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $112 42d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $112 45d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $37 46d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $75 46d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $113 69d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $113 70d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $113 70d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $114 71d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $114 73d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $114 74d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 80d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 81d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $114 83d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 84d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $113 84d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 89d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 90d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 94d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 95d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $114 101d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records