Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01af…e285 crypto 1261 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+2%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate72%914W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$6
14 days−$4
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 53% +4.3%
≤30d 289 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 58% -1.5%
≤90d 650 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 47% -26.9%
all 1261 +4.0% -5.9% 72% 64% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 64% -10.2%
10% -14.9% 30% -18.8%
15% -23.1% 22% -26.6%
20% -30.7% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses914 / 347
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1261 / 1261
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1261 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.11 · official $4.11 (match) · 3500 history records