Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01af…7bc2 sports 991 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34,327 (-6%) realized −$31,327 · open −$3,000
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate85%841W / 146L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day72.7pace
Fees−$947est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,024
other 29% −$10,064
crypto 2% −$342
weather 1% +$26
finance 0% −$4
world 0% +$10
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +26.9% +14.9% 65% 61% -50.8%
≤30d 579 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 16% -12.6%
≤90d 987 +2.7% -7.1% 85% 16% -10.9%
all 987 +2.7% -7.1% 85% 16% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 16% -10.9%
10% -16.0% 8% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 6% -27.2%
20% -31.5% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$300 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$31,327
Unrealized−$3,000
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses841 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$947
Open positions3
Markets (closed)987 / 991
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$571
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 987 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $193 $191 −$2 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 41¢ 0¢ $3,002 $4 −$2,999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $278 −$278 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7 +$5 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 +$33 +216%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $7 +$2 +27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $2,272 +$278 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 +$75 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $24 +$38 +158%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +28%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 +$68 +442%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +119%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$3 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$52 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$4 +37%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$8 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 +$22 +197%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $524 +$33 +6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +25%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$36 +117%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$34 +370%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$23 +126%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$2 -38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$32 +206%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$5 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $1,264 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $8 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $9 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $9 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $46 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $20 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $95 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $12 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $695 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $695 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $15 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $135 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 89¢ $1,473 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 89¢ $799 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $15 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $132 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $15 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $15 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $7 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $15 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $15 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $87 16h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $99 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.99 · official $209.99 (match) · 3500 history records