Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
01 0x01ae…55f8 sports 276 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,346 (+16%) realized +$3,349 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%171W / 104L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days+$909
14 days+$1,170
30 days+$1,961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$2,563
other 8% +$644
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$58
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +11.1% +0.5% 60% 59% +6.7%
≤30d 209 +16.9% +5.8% 58% 57% +1.5%
≤90d 275 +21.4% +9.8% 62% 61% +4.1%
all 275 +21.4% +9.8% 62% 61% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 61% +4.1%
10% -0.7% 57% -5.8%
15% -10.3% 50% -14.9%
20% -19.1% 40% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$62 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$3,349
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses171 / 104
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage54d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $81 +$82 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $81 +$1 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $61 +$63 +104%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$64 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $81 +$55 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $202 +$67 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $201 −$18 -9%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $71 +$29 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $81 +$52 +65%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $71 +$29 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $151 +$49 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$243 +238%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$110 +120%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $92 +$176 +192%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $51 +$54 +106%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $76 +$74 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 +$53 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $71 +$37 +52%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$63 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $167 +$180 +108%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$83 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $71 +$56 +79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $142 +$91 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $81 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 48¢ $83 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $81 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $81 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $81 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $81 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 19h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 48¢ $61 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $81 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 40h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $81 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 45¢ $61 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 72¢ $101 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $61 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $101 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $20 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $81 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.12 · official $97.12 (match) · 524 history records