Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ad…90f6 world 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,325 (+4%) realized +$2,106 · open +$664
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%64W / 71L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$609per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$81
14 days+$727
30 days+$1,255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$509
other 26% −$423
politics 18% +$1,626
economics 5% +$134
sports 5% +$1,062
crypto 5% +$828
culture 1% +$200
tech 0% −$151
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -61.0% -64.7% 25% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 21 -9.1% -17.8% 43% 24% -2.9%
≤90d 104 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 30% -8.3%
all 135 +2.6% -7.2% 47% 27% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 27% -7.0%
10% -16.0% 25% -15.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$78 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$8,089
Realized+$2,106
Unrealized+$664
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses64 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions9
Markets (closed)135 / 144
History coverage122d
Avg bet$609
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,341 $2,374 +$33 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $1,997 $2,087 +$90 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 67¢ 99¢ $971 $1,434 +$463 (+48%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 81¢ 100¢ $728 $897 +$169 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $801 $883 +$83 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 48¢ 99¢ $120 $248 +$128 (+106%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 25¢ 11¢ $345 $160 −$185 (-54%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? No 56¢ $492 $0 −$492 (-100%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 14¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Thunder 19¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? No 11¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Yes 11¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 31¢ $387 $0 −$387 (-100%)
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? Yes 17¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,696 +$106 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $63 −$45 -71%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $37 −$29 -79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $117 −$113 -97%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$43 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,657 +$796 +30%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 03 $3,362 +$71 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $106 −$16 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $27 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,863 −$209 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $1,553 −$434 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $12 +$13 +104%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $4,138 −$4 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $461 −$12 -2%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $8 +$7 +81%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 21 $498 +$1,059 +213%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $381 +$162 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 13 $26 −$22 -85%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $1,196 −$323 -27%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $25 −$20 -78%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $97 +$21 +21%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 10 $152 +$148 +97%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? May 08 $69 −$31 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $407 +$121 +30%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 06 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 06 $1,403 −$492 -35%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 06 $549 −$387 -70%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,891 +$55 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $131 +$2 +1%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 01 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $351 −$2 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $107 −$107 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $1,033 +$28 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $84 −$28 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $1,631 −$275 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $144 +$2 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $222 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $222 −$110 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $711 −$69 -10%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 20 $73 −$69 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 20 $1,681 −$23 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $342 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 16 $20 −$7 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $6 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $6 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $197 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $47 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $197 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $46 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $162 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,089.31 · official $8,089.31 (match) · 3049 history records