Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x01ab…e190
other · 254 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$131
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses111 / 129
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)240 / 254
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 14 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$22
14 days−$24
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 58¢ 79¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+36%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 51¢ 66¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? No 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 47¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 74¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 62¢ 61¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 53¢ 51¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 48¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 40¢ 56¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? No 73¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 39¢ 82¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+112%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? No 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? No 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 70¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win? No 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? No 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? No 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$12 -54%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 12 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 11 $11 −$2 -17%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $9 +$9 +96%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 11 $10 −$8 -79%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 10 $11 +$6 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$5 -43%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$8 -76%
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 09 $12 −$2 -21%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +42%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 08 $11 +$3 +29%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 08 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 07 $11 +$1 +11%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -15%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $6 +$11 +172%
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? Jun 05 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -97%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $6 −$5 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 05 $10 $0 -5%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary Jun 02 $10 −$6 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$17
world 17% +$31
politics 17% −$28
crypto 8% −$24
sports 7% +$33
tech 7% +$1
finance 3% +$6
culture 1% −$9
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 62¢ $10 6m
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 95¢ $9 3h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $10 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $10 5h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $7 6h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? SELL No 58¢ $3 8h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 30¢ $2 11h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 37¢ $4 16h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $10 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL No 69¢ $16 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 40¢ $2 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 40¢ $2 21h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 59¢ $13 22h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? SELL No 52¢ $14 23h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 49¢ $9 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $8 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 51¢ $10 24h
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? SELL No 57¢ $11 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL No 86¢ $13 28h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 90¢ $18 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $13 29h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 16¢ $10 31h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $9 41h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 54¢ $13 41h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $11 43h
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL No 8¢ $2 43h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 40% -14.8%
≤30d 149 -3.0% -12.3% 49% 41% -11.2%
≤90d 240 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 40% -11.1%
all 240 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 40% -11.1%
10% -20.6% 28% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 21% -27.3%
20% -35.3% 16% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.73 · official $130.63 (match) · 511 history records