Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01a9…75dd crypto 832 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,203 (-36%) realized −$3,203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate43%354W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% −$228
crypto 48% −$341
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.5% -7.2% 51% 15% -8.9%
≤30d 562 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 24% -15.4%
≤90d 831 -14.2% -22.3% 43% 24% -15.3%
all 831 -14.2% -22.3% 43% 24% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 24% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 16% -23.4%
15% -36.6% 11% -30.8%
20% -42.8% 8% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses354 / 477
Open positions0
Markets (closed)831 / 832
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 831 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 19 $87 −$4 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $86 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $107 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$22 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$8 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$21 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$14 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +846%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 SELL 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? SELL No 92¢ $83 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $95 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records