Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x01a5…0e36 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,877 (+2%) realized +$3,996 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%200W / 47L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$630per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$799
14 days+$1,099
30 days+$1,708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$805
crypto 24% −$299
weather 10% +$264
world 8% +$483
politics 7% +$2,228
economics 7% −$327
sports 6% +$1,090
finance 4% −$553
tech 2% +$325
culture 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.3% -4.7% 91% 55% +8.8%
≤30d 51 +5.5% -4.5% 92% 25% -0.6%
≤90d 134 +7.5% -2.7% 87% 21% -4.9%
all 247 +3.8% -6.1% 81% 19% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 19% -7.2%
10% -15.1% 9% -16.0%
15% -23.3% 6% -24.2%
20% -30.8% 4% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$567) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$100 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$2,495
Realized+$3,996
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses200 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions11
Markets (closed)247 / 258
History coverage649d
Avg bet$630
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $555 $564 +$9 (+2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Under 91¢ 90¢ $455 $452 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $418 $432 +$15 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $521 $407 −$114 (-22%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $285 $263 −$22 (-8%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Under 91¢ 91¢ $182 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $136 $132 −$4 (-3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 86¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$101 +34%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $65 −$61 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $542 +$34 +6%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $134 +$24 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $124 +$26 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $527 +$72 +14%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $584 +$62 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,381 +$531 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $281 +$19 +7%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 13 $72 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $243 +$107 +44%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $505 +$45 +9%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $220 +$6 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $19 −$11 -59%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $734 +$64 +9%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $202 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $464 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $472 +$3 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $7 $0 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $755 +$20 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $223 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $470 +$6 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $664 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $32 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $270 +$42 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $341 +$1 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $542 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,065 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $289 +$8 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $37 +$12 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $730 +$36 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 30 $330 +$52 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $432 +$25 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $148 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $444 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $625 +$4 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $264 +$9 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $567 +$94 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $282 +$48 +17%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $340 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $227 +$10 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 24 $132 +$12 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $182 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $274 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $117 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $16 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $31 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $18 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $197 3h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $27 5h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 5h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 5h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $118 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $22 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $310 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 9h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $44 11h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $38 15h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 15h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $29 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $269 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $29 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,494.85 · official $2,495.22 (match) · 2565 history records