Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01a4…4967 other 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,302 (+4%) realized +$7,175 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%160W / 115L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$441
14 days−$695
30 days−$1,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$7,700
world 4% −$212
politics 1% −$41
crypto 1% +$57
tech 1% −$818
sports 0% −$102
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 17% -19.0%
≤30d 40 -12.4% -20.7% 32% 20% -18.4%
≤90d 96 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 23% -9.3%
all 275 -1.1% -10.6% 58% 29% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 29% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 14% -15.4%
15% -26.9% 7% -23.6%
20% -34.1% 6% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$107 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$972
Realized+$7,175
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses160 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)275 / 280
History coverage261d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $558 $652 +$94 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $270 $296 +$25 (+9%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $106 +$169 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $106 −$43 -40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $73 −$31 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $429 −$89 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,599 −$375 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $218 +$17 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,177 −$35 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $43 +$9 +22%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $114 −$96 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $128 −$8 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,483 +$47 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $183 −$6 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $289 −$40 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $671 +$22 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $926 −$201 -22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $129 −$34 -27%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $101 −$28 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $305 +$2 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $27 −$12 -43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1,172 −$97 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $136 −$7 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,324 +$198 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,700 −$418 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $43 −$19 -43%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 23 $92 −$48 -52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $46 +$37 +82%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $1,031 −$722 -70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $185 −$15 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $344 −$37 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $322 −$26 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $228 −$17 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $61 −$21 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $162 −$18 -11%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 21 $1,302 +$20 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $699 +$244 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $913 −$145 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $173 −$131 -76%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $250 +$83 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $67 +$50 +76%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 17 $730 +$82 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $308 −$135 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,247 −$5 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 14 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 13 $224 −$99 -44%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $155 +$53 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $86 −$33 -39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $36 −$36 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $112 54m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $222 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $129 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $249 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $971.60 · official $971.70 (match) · 3263 history records