Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01a1…ceda crypto 77 markets active 6d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-9%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$69
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -77.4% -79.5% 0% 0% -75.7%
≤30d 77 -25.6% -32.6% 38% 29% -21.5%
≤90d 77 -25.6% -32.6% 38% 29% -21.5%
all 77 -25.6% -32.6% 38% 29% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 29% -21.5%
10% -39.1% 19% -29.0%
15% -45.0% 14% -35.9%
20% -50.4% 6% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage22d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$11 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 19 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 19 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 19 $15 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 19 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 19 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 19 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records