Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01a0…327b other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 31% −$1
politics 2% $0
weather 2% −$6
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
all 31 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage478d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $35 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $71 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $86 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 22 $6 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 20 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +4%
Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 03 $16 −$6 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $35 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $34 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $35 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $16 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $14 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $25 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $7 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $34 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $34 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $37 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $37 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $25 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $12 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 91 history records