Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
01 0x019f…c075 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$6
other 45% +$3
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +132.2% +110.1% 43% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 14 +132.2% +110.1% 43% 7% -8.3%
all 44 +38.4% +25.2% 50% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.2% 5% -8.3%
10% +13.2% 5% -17.1%
15% +2.3% 2% -25.1%
20% -7.7% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.72 per $1 lost it wins $4.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage483d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $97 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $43 +$3 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $3 −$2 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $46 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Momo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 26 $13 $0 +4%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 02 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 6h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $5 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $19 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $21 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $16 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.36 · official $43.15 (match) · 122 history records