Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x019c…e8d2 weather 568 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,648 (-16%) realized −$4,503 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%165W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$1,833
other 16% +$251
finance 4% −$351
tech 3% −$23
crypto 2% −$53
politics 2% +$21
sports 1% +$6
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -5.3% -14.3% 17% 8% -17.3%
≤30d 455 -5.9% -14.9% 25% 15% -18.7%
≤90d 562 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 18% -15.2%
all 562 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 18% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 18% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 16% -23.3%
15% -30.1% 15% -30.7%
20% -36.9% 14% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$4,503
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses165 / 397
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)562 / 568
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 16¢ 31¢ $58 $110 +$51 (+88%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 65¢ 22¢ $156 $52 −$104 (-67%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 37¢ 8¢ $105 $23 −$82 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Yes 44¢ 43¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $16 −$5 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $150 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $34 +$103 +308%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$34 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $112 −$11 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $273 −$25 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $143 −$15 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$25 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $68 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$15 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 −$16 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 −$12 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $56 −$15 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $84 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $70 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 49¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 16m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 52¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 52¢ $15 33m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 51¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 51¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 51¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 61¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 49¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 44¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 41¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 41¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 42¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? SELL No 25¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $22 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $34 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY No 35¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $43 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 68¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 67¢ $150 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.86 · official $224.86 (match) · 3500 history records