Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x019a…f457 sports 1109 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,784 (-5%) realized −$2,793 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%503W / 604L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$437est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$261
14 days−$63
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,006
other 41% −$1,218
crypto 2% −$148
world 0% −$85
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -31.1% -37.6% 20% 20% -42.6%
≤30d 228 -0.5% -9.9% 49% 41% -10.3%
≤90d 1107 -5.1% -14.1% 45% 39% -14.9%
all 1107 -5.1% -14.1% 45% 39% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 39% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 33% -23.1%
15% -29.8% 28% -30.5%
20% -36.7% 22% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$2,793
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses503 / 604
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$437
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1107 / 1109
History coverage73d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 29¢ 56¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+95%)
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego 64¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $4 +$2 +52%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $15 −$6 -37%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$7 +44%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $20 −$2 -12%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $1 −$1 -82%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $20 −$5 -24%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $30 −$9 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $118 −$65 -55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $14 −$9 -65%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$3 -17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$13 -43%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $31 −$3 -10%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $16 −$2 -15%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $60 +$19 +32%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $31 +$29 +95%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $40 −$10 -24%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 +$10 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $202 −$31 -16%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $101 +$55 +54%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $45 +$18 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $406 +$16 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $101 +$74 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $71 −$21 -29%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$48 +224%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $82 +$22 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$26 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $101 −$44 -44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $124 +$21 +17%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $31 +$42 +137%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $91 −$31 -35%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $9 +$3 +35%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $51 −$30 -59%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 29¢ $10 38m
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Lorenzo Sonego 63¢ $20 41m
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 64¢ $21 42m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 55¢ $6 47m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 31¢ $10 48m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 48¢ $15 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Nuno Borges 100¢ $29 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 35¢ $4 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 70¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 18h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 18h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom SELL Marcos Giron 53¢ $18 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 59¢ $20 20h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Daniel Altmaier 6¢ $0 20h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $1 21h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 61¢ $15 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 53¢ $15 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 68¢ $20 27h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 44¢ $21 27h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $30 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 22¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 61¢ $14 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 31¢ $28 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 33¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.83 · official $19.48 (match) · 2568 history records