trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $90 | $89 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 58¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 24¢ | 20¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $53 | $0 | −$53 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $101 | +$94 | +93% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $54 | −$53 | -98% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $31 | −$30 | -97% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 11 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Arsenal beat Inter Milan? | Nov 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the match between Red Star Belgrade and Barcelona end in a draw? | Nov 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich? | Nov 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Red Star Belgrade beat Barcelona? | Nov 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Atletico Madrid beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Nov 07 | $1 | +$5 | +525% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $49 | +$30 | +61% |
| Will AC Milan beat Real Madrid? | Nov 06 | $1 | +$6 | +567% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -43.9% | -49.2% | 33% | 33% | -22.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -43.9% | -49.2% | 33% | 33% | -22.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -43.9% | -49.2% | 33% | 33% | -22.0% |
| all | 14 | +27.8% | +15.6% | 36% | 36% | -16.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +15.6% | 36% | -16.8% |
| 10% | +4.6% | 36% | -24.8% |
| 15% | -5.5% | 36% | -32.0% |
| 20% | -14.8% | 29% | -38.7% |