Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x0199…ce0f other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%48W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$2
politics 30% +$3
world 12% +$1
crypto 12% +$2
sports 7% $0
tech 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 51 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.38 per $1 lost it wins $6.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses48 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage675d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 14 $59 $0 +0%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $42 $0 +1%
Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? Mar 16 $213 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20? Feb 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 15, 2026? Feb 17 $69 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? Jan 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 27? Oct 30 $60 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 23? Aug 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 01 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $38 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $66 $0 +0%
Ethena USDe depeg before April? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Mar 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? Feb 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 20 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will XRP flip ETH in 2024? Jan 06 $19 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 06 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 09 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump tweet 60 or more times Nov 15-22? Nov 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15? Nov 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 10 $75 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times November 1-8? Nov 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 01 $45 $0 +0%
Scroll airdrop in 2024? Oct 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? Oct 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18? Oct 19 $42 $0 +0%
Base airdrop by September 30? Oct 12 $14 $0 +0%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 01 $90 +$1 +1%
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? Aug 29 $90 $0 +0%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Aug 27 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? Aug 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Trump posts less than 5 times on X? Aug 26 $67 $0 +0%
Trump posts 100 or more times on X? Aug 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? Aug 21 $126 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 20 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? Aug 19 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $66 29d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 29d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 46d
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 85d
Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? BUY Yes 100¢ $213 106d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 123d
Will Claude 5 be released on February 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $62 146d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $46 146d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY No 100¢ $22 167d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 189d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY No 100¢ $34 220d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $34 253d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 23? BUY No 100¢ $25 299d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July BUY No 100¢ $28 359d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 100¢ $38 403d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 22? BUY Up 100¢ $66 422d
Ethena USDe depeg before April? BUY No 99¢ $12 453d
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? SELL No 100¢ $26 472d
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 475d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 98¢ $13 481d
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? BUY No 99¢ $17 494d
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY No 100¢ $26 501d
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? BUY No 99¢ $16 513d
Will Biden pardon SBF? BUY No 96¢ $35 516d
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 526d
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY No 100¢ $77 528d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $20 535d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.87 · official $37.87 (match) · 113 history records