Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x0199…5ffb world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$168 (+2%) realized +$160 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$323
14 days−$218
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$368
world 47% +$96
politics 1% +$249
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -31.6% -38.1% 30% 25% -19.1%
≤30d 45 +17.4% +6.3% 38% 36% -7.9%
≤90d 75 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 39% -9.2%
all 75 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 39% -9.2%
10% -11.6% 36% -17.9%
15% -20.1% 33% -25.8%
20% -28.0% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$62 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Open positions7
Markets (closed)75 / 82
History coverage59d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 36¢ 46¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 46¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 14¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $113 +$112 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $142 −$53 -37%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $215 −$180 -84%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $77 +$86 +112%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $100 −$27 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$14 -46%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $120 +$34 +28%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $725 +$442 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$73 +141%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$40 -40%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $45 −$40 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $140 −$28 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $580 −$321 -55%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $227 +$188 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $205 −$115 -56%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $220 −$22 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $69 +$13 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $87 −$83 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $102 +$75 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $204 −$76 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $200 −$104 -52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $115 −$88 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $210 +$126 +60%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $68 −$37 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $21 +$41 +196%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $72 −$21 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $21 +$281 +1355%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $44 −$32 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $52 +$121 +232%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$63 +63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $120 −$50 -42%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $52 +$66 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $51 +$43 +85%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 25 $52 −$50 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $100 +$114 +114%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 17 $509 −$509 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 16 $50 +$19 +37%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? May 16 $30 −$10 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $25 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 36¢ $25 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $226 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 29h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 39h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 45h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $54 47h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $80 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $162 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 22¢ $73 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.50 · official $174.52 (match) · 293 history records