Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
01 0x0198…dea0 sports 51 markets active 3h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$824 (+16%) realized +$2,832 · open −$2,008
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$325
14 days+$346
30 days+$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$856
sports 21% +$342
politics 11% +$55
other 9% +$75
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +30.5% +18.1% 35% 35% +22.6%
≤30d 31 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 29% +16.6%
≤90d 33 +17.4% +6.2% 30% 30% +89.4%
all 33 +17.4% +6.2% 30% 30% +89.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 30% +89.4%
10% -4.0% 30% +71.3%
15% -13.3% 30% +54.8%
20% -21.8% 30% +39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$32 · ×7.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,248
Realized+$2,832
Unrealized−$2,008
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions12
Markets (closed)33 / 51
History coverage164d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $2,173 $514 −$1,659 (-76%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $200 $273 +$73 (+36%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $110 $102 −$8 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $56 +$26 (+88%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 46¢ 36¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $328 $9 −$320 (-97%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $25 $6 −$19 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 25¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$112 +365%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$45 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$365 +711%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$109 +107%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$201 +197%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $273 +$1,294 +475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $40 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $350 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $700 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $140 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $96 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $227 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $150 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $50 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 27¢ $51 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $51 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $51 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $210 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $68 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $400 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador BUY 25¢ $26 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 37¢ $76 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,248.29 · official $1,248.30 (match) · 148 history records