Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x0197…cf7f other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$376 (+39%) realized +$372 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$152
14 days−$152
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$157
finance 22% +$530
world 20% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.7% -31.0% 60% 60% -39.0%
≤30d 5 -23.7% -31.0% 60% 60% -39.0%
≤90d 5 -23.7% -31.0% 60% 60% -39.0%
all 6 +24.9% +13.0% 67% 67% +41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 67% +41.3%
10% +2.2% 33% +27.7%
15% -7.7% 33% +15.4%
20% -16.7% 33% +4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$95 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized+$372
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage95d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 23 $196 +$524 +268%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $69 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 37h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $29 40h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 2d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 63¢ $10 39d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 81d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $27 94d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $0 94d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $0 94d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 32¢ $98 94d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 26¢ $50 94d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 31¢ $3 95d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $0 95d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $3 95d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $2 95d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 22¢ $3 95d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 18¢ $5 95d
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 18¢ $3 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.82 · official $294.82 (match) · 115 history records