Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x0195…d7ba other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$86 (+34%) realized +$113 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$113
14 days+$113
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$64
sports 40% +$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +76.7% +59.9% 29% 29% +80.2%
≤30d 7 +76.7% +59.9% 29% 29% +80.2%
≤90d 7 +76.7% +59.9% 29% 29% +80.2%
all 7 +76.7% +59.9% 29% 29% +80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.9% 29% +80.2%
10% +44.6% 29% +62.9%
15% +30.6% 29% +47.2%
20% +17.8% 29% +32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +99% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$10 · ×8.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $20 $75 +$55 (+270%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $16 +$104 +650%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 20h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $26 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 30h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.61 · official $134.62 (match) · 22 history records