Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0195…9f64 sports 976 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$875 (+2%) realized +$961 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate76%725W / 234L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$632
7 days−$139
14 days+$68
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$176
other 20% +$412
crypto 1% −$14
world 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -6.5% -15.4% 74% 60% -10.9%
≤30d 511 +1.3% -8.4% 78% 61% -8.2%
≤90d 959 +0.5% -9.1% 76% 62% -8.4%
all 959 +0.5% -9.1% 76% 62% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 62% -8.4%
10% -17.8% 38% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 21% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$32 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$804
Realized+$961
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses725 / 234
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions15
Markets (closed)959 / 976
History coverage82d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 959 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 81¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Conor Gannon 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 76¢ 78¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 71¢ 30¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 72¢ 50¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Over 82¢ 74¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 80¢ 56¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 53¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Tallon Griekspoor 58¢ 40¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 73¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 63¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $20 +$18 +90%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $201 +$19 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $352 +$94 +27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$55 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $401 +$29 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$184 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $452 −$375 -83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $50 +$6 +11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $201 +$24 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$38 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 +$54 +22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $100 +$14 +14%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $30 −$19 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $201 +$27 +13%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $30 +$7 +24%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$13 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 76¢ $101 19m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 95¢ $100 19m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 94¢ $100 20m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 71¢ $101 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 83¢ $101 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $100 2h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 80¢ $30 2h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 58¢ $20 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 AND Fra BUY 67¢ $101 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 81¢ $101 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 52¢ $20 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 95¢ $100 2h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 72¢ $101 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 15h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 72¢ $50 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 91¢ $156 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $302 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $101 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $430 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $201 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $401 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $17 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 15¢ $77 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.39 · official $904.42 · 2103 history records