Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0194…e3c5 sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,294 (-25%) realized −$1,292 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$844
7 days−$1,528
14 days−$1,521
30 days−$1,521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,019
sports 20% −$402
crypto 3% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -38.3% -44.1% 28% 24% -33.0%
≤30d 107 -31.4% -37.9% 32% 26% -31.4%
≤90d 107 -31.4% -37.9% 32% 26% -31.4%
all 107 -31.4% -37.9% 32% 26% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 26% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.8% 21% -38.0%
15% -49.3% 18% -44.0%
20% -54.2% 15% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$1,292
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 73
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage11d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $183 −$80 -44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 +$151 +74%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $263 −$175 -67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,120 −$607 -54%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$5 -61%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$19 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$11 -72%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$23 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$15 +248%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +305%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$79 -78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$146 -48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $312 +$9 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $247 −$241 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 15 $21 −$12 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 11m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 12m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 21m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 21m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $355 34m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 35m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 40m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $82 54m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $89 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $153 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $45 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.26 · official $148.26 (match) · 308 history records