Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0193…8779 world 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-5%) realized −$86 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days−$50
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$231
politics 14% +$39
other 12% +$10
sports 8% +$58
crypto 2% +$5
economics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +148.8% +125.1% 100% 100% +125.1%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 29% -29.1%
≤90d 69 -25.2% -32.4% 28% 26% -36.5%
all 152 +10.6% +0.1% 42% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 39% -12.6%
10% -9.5% 38% -21.0%
15% -18.2% 34% -28.6%
20% -26.3% 30% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 88
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)152 / 155
History coverage726d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $55 $15 −$40 (-73%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$19 +37%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $53 −$29 -55%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$43 +213%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $10 −$9 -92%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $10 +$19 +186%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 22 $10 +$27 +270%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $24 −$24 -97%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $15 −$1 -8%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? May 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 12 $33 −$6 -18%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $5 +$17 +341%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $56 −$25 -44%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 +$15 +72%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $30 +$8 +25%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $35 −$35 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $51 +$53 +105%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $30 +$62 +206%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $10 +$4 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $15 +$10 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $5 +$2 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $7 +$17 +240%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Erdoğan out in 2025? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Apr 17 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Apr 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Apr 17 $15 −$4 -28%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Apr 17 $25 −$5 -22%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Apr 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025? Apr 17 $7 −$5 -77%
Qatar strike on Israel by September 30? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Apr 17 $18 −$12 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 86¢ $68 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $51 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $20 7d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $14 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $5 13d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 14d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $10 14d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $30 15d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No $1 30d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY No 35¢ $10 36d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 20¢ $10 36d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 36d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 37d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 37d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 37d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 38d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 39d
Trump declares election interference national emergency? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 42d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 42d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 46¢ $27 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.85 · official $36.85 (match) · 567 history records