trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 25% | 25% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 25% | 25% | -8.7% |
| all | 20 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 45% | 5% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 5% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $3 | +$1 | +21% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | May 22 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po | May 19 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | May 16 | $5 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Apr 16 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 15 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 14 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Circle IPO in 2025? | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | Mar 21 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? | Mar 12 | $14 | −$2 | -17% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +2% |