Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x0191…76a1 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+5%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 63% -4.1%
≤30d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 63% -4.1%
≤90d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 63% -4.1%
all 19 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 63% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 63% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 42% -13.2%
15% -20.3% 5% -21.6%
20% -28.1% 5% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records