Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0191…536a crypto 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$429 (+2%) realized +$507 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%341W / 22L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$438
14 days+$357
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 7% -5.7%
≤30d 363 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 7% -7.9%
≤90d 363 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 7% -7.9%
all 363 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 7% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -16.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$41 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$507
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses341 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage10d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 90¢ 52¢ $186 $108 −$78 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $149 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $132 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $199 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $69 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $136 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $123 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $108 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $121 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $146 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $119 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $132 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $163 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $187 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $132 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $199 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $201 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $126 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $69 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $72 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $64 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.33 · official $127.62 · 841 history records