Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0191…baec crypto 53 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$17
economics 10% −$17
world 6% −$1
sports 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 29% -9.6%
≤30d 52 +8.6% -1.8% 40% 29% -10.2%
≤90d 52 +8.6% -1.8% 40% 29% -10.2%
all 52 +8.6% -1.8% 40% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 29% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 27% -18.8%
15% -19.8% 17% -26.6%
20% -27.6% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 50¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $66 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $72 −$7 -10%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $11 −$2 -16%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
UK Recession in 2026? Jun 13 $57 −$17 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 49¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 47¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 4¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 5¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 7¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 8¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 6¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 93¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 5¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 6¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $3.21 (match) · 253 history records