Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x018e…b81e other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
other 27% $0
politics 16% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -3.5% -12.6% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -3.5% -12.6% 44% 0% -10.1%
all 45 -0.7% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage373d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 −$1 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $18 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $21 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $26 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayor Aug 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Auckland City beat Bayern Munich? Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $14 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 40h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $4 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $35 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $36 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.64 · official $42.64 (match) · 151 history records