Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
01 0x018e…ab8a sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+4%) realized +$92 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$98
other 19% −$70
politics 4% +$32
crypto 1% −$23
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -7.0% -15.9% 38% 32% -7.7%
≤30d 42 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 33% -6.2%
≤90d 42 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 33% -6.2%
all 42 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 33% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 33% -6.2%
10% -22.3% 29% -15.1%
15% -29.8% 26% -23.3%
20% -36.7% 17% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage33d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 30¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 55¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 70¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $53 +$48 +91%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $40 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $45 −$11 -25%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $116 −$6 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 −$10 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $142 +$36 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $81 +$41 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $126 −$51 -40%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $158 −$56 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $19 −$2 -12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $60 +$35 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$31 +149%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$11 -39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$4 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$14 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$27 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $124 +$49 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $96 +$41 +42%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $91 −$5 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $47 +$30 +65%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $45 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $0 14m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 80¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $44 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $97 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $14 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 4¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 4¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 6¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 39¢ $14 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 27¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 33¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 19¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.03 · official $45.03 (match) · 176 history records