Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
01 0x018a…0be2 crypto 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%110W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$32
other 2% −$19
sports 0% +$11
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -62.4% -65.9% 12% 12% -43.1%
≤90d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 37% 34% -4.0%
all 228 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 45% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 45% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 43% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 36% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 32% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses110 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)228 / 232
History coverage176d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 31 $57 +$68 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $268 +$207 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 23 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 22 $104 +$110 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 22 $104 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 22 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 22 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 22 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 22 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $52 +$64 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 22 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 22 $29 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 22 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 22 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $5 +$36 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 21 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 26 $30 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 26 $116 −$18 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 26 $140 −$138 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $15 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.58 · official $105.59 (match) · 537 history records