Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x018a…5e65 sports 399 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$860 (-8%) realized −$859 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate74%295W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$68
14 days−$64
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$828
other 23% −$156
culture 0% +$3
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 62% -13.7%
≤30d 205 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 61% -16.2%
≤90d 269 -3.8% -13.0% 73% 59% -16.8%
all 396 -3.1% -12.4% 74% 58% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 58% -17.3%
10% -20.7% 33% -25.2%
15% -28.4% 17% -32.4%
20% -35.4% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$859
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses295 / 101
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)396 / 399
History coverage284d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 67¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Taylor Fritz 69¢ 68¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 62¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$5 +19%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $25 +$10 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $26 +$31 +121%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $26 +$42 +162%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 +$8 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 +$12 +47%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $22 +$7 +29%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $8 +$12 +147%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$8 +30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $24 +$6 +25%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$8 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$19 +74%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$12 +49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$8 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 67¢ $25 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $25 2h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $25 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $25 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $25 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 15h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $35 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $25 15h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $29 15h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $25 16h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 85¢ $25 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $25 16h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $27 16h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 93¢ $25 17h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $56 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $25 18h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $67 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $26 27h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 37¢ $26 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $14 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $25 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $22 40h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $22 41h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $20 44h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $20 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.04 · official $74.04 (match) · 819 history records